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Everyone has their own handicapping strategy for picking a football winner and there must be a thousand different "Cheat Sheets" available on the internet. While we don't subscribe to any particular system -- and we certainly don't endorse any of the so-called "Gurus" -- we do want to share with you some free football betting tips that we've found useful for picking more winners and winning more money.

Football Point Spreads - How to Find A Bargain

Can 3½ points be a better line than 9½ points? You bet!

Sit back, read over the provided material, and when you are ready Join V-Wager to start your online wagering experience.

Football scoring is a "numbers game" … points are added to the score in units of 2, 3, 6, 7 or 8. With this in mind, it’s important to realize that CERTAIN POINT SPREADS posted by the bookmaker ARE MORE IMPORTANT than others. Because a relatively high percentage of games end with a margin of victory in increments of these numbers, it's imperative that attention be paid to the most meaningful point spreads.

Well over half of all pro football games end with one of ten possible differences in the score: 1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, 11, 13, 14, or 17 (not necessarily in that order!)

So, the "Half-Point" move off any of these numbers can represent a significant betting opportunity.

When the Line Moves From 3

For example, a line of +3.5 is a BARGAIN compared to that same underdog at +3 … this indicates that the favored team must now score a touchdown as opposed to a field goal in order to win the game. So, in essence, a line move to +3.5 can be considered much more significant that, say, a line move from +5 to +5.5.

And, by the same logic, a point spread that moves from +3 to +2.5 indicates a RISKY BET on the underdog. These half-point line changes from a point spread of 3 can be much more significant than larger changes.

For instance, a line change from +7.5 to +9.5 is hardly worth noticing. Because football games do not usually end with a margin of 8 or 9, the move from +7.5 to +9.5 doesn't make much difference. When a team covers, or fails to cover, 7.5 points, they almost always cover, or fail to cover, 9.5 as well.

Handicapping Football with Real Numbers

To gamble on football, it's important to realize that certain scores are more likely to occur than other scores. Would you believe that only 13 different numbers represent more than 66% of all NFL football scores!

It's true! When predicting final football scores, you must take into account these REAL NUMBERS …
7, 10, 13, 14, 16, 17, 20, 21, 23, 24, 27, 28, and 31

These numbers (plus scores in the category of "Over 40") are the only real numbers worth considering when forecasting the final outcome. Always adjust your predictions accordingly.

In other words, say you've forecast the Titans over the Rams by a score of 30-26 … this score probably won't happen! Adjust your numbers to a score with a higher probability of occurring … say, 31-24 or 28-27. Now you are dealing with a point spread worthy of consideration.


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